English Triple Crown Kicks Off as 14 Run for 2000 Guineas - by bobthehat
Vermont Is 4 Lovers (G1) winner Cadet of Thrace and Duetoburst Stakes (G1) winner Star of Thunder are among the stars aligned to contest the classic 2000 Guineas Saturday. This $3-million, one mile race -- the first jewel in the English Triple Crown -- is set to be contested on a firm turf course at Newmarket.
Creamsoda2's Cadet of Thrace won the Vermont Is 4 Lovers at 1 1/8 miles last time out in easy fashion while earning a career best speed figure of 105 in his first race as a sophomore. The son of Sea the Stars won the Premie Champion Stakes (G3) and The Royal Dodge (G2) as a juvenile before completing his season with a third-place finish in the Breeders' Bowl Juvenile Turf (G1) and a fourth in The Futurity (G1). In the Breeders' Bowl, he set all the pace only to be caught in the stretch, which is exactly what happened to his he-mare mom, the redoubtable Orpheus Cadet, in his Breeders' Bowl Juvenile Turf appearance. Orpheus Cadet (Redoute's Choice x Forty Niner x Seattle Slew) made amends for his Breeders' Bowl near-miss (he finished second to Phantom's Ripping Star by a mere head) with a win in the 2000 Guineas the following season and now Orpheous Cadet hopes to follow in the footsteps of that resolute miler. Cadet of Thrace is of a classy female family which springs from Hall of Fame broodmare Mama Forty, dam of four grade one winners, including End of Year Award winner King of Stupid. Drawn in post 13, B. Jungnitsch is in the irons of the 6/1 third-wagering choice.
Multiple grade-one winner and $1.3-million earner Star of Thunder may be the class of the field. The son of Zoustar earned his first grade one victory in the six-furlong Firebird last August in Ireland. He then finished fifth in The Golden Shoe (G1) on a track listed as good before closing from last of 14 to take the seven-furlong Duetoburst by 1 1/4 lengths over fellow 2000 Guineas contender Flagstriker, with End of Year Award winner Epsilon Centauri another 1 1/4 lengths back in third. He then finished second by the same margin to King Aidy Choice's in The Futurity at a flat mile to complete his season. He prepped for this with a one-length win in the 7 1/2-furlong The Far Lap (G3). Being by the speed influence Zoustar and out of the mare Sounds of Thunder (who's two other graded stakes winners were turf sprinters) there is some concern about Saturday's distance for Corzak's bay colt, especially with the vertical rise of the final furlong. Star of Thunder, though, has earned his two highest speed figures in the one-mile Futurity (101) and the 7 1/2-furlong Far Lap (107) which goes some way to alleviate the possible stamina issues. Star of Thunder is the fourth choice at odds of 7/1.
Bigdunn's King Aidy Choice's earned his grade one win in The Futurity, which put a bow on a juvenile season that saw him win four of nine races. Aside from The Futurity, the son of Redoute's Choice won a seven-furlong listed stakes, finished second in the five-furlong Nunthorpe (G1), third in the 1 1/4-mile Saint Cloud (G1), and 10th in The Golden Shoe. He earned his best juvenile speed figure (103) in The Futurity then topped that in his sophomore debut in March, earning a 104 speed figure when second in the Czech 2000 Guineas. Saturday's 2000 Guineas will mark his third straight 2000 Guineas race as he enters this off a 12 1/4-length defeat when eighth in the Japanese version, setting his career tally at four wins from 11 starts. King Aidy Choice's is the second stakes winner from 13 foals by dam Melby Jones (Kingmambo x Secretariat). King Aidy Choice's starts from post 11 and offers odds of 10/1 for his backers.
Though a multiple graded stakes winner as a juvenile, Lourival's homebred son of Expert Eye Erbiti enters the 2000 Guineas following four listed stakes races this year, all in sprints. In the latest of which, he closed from fifth place to win the seven-furlong Turning Away Turf Sprint in early April, earning a 96 speed figure. His career high speed figure of 98 is well below his fellow Guineas entrants and was earned in a 6 1/2-furlong race while making his sophomore debut in mid-January. He began his career with four straight wins, concluding with The Rich Man (G2) and Blue Diamond Road (G1) stakes before losing by a mere head in The Middlepark Stakes (G1). The seven-time winner and earner of over $1.1-million seems not to have moved up much with age. His dam, Sadler's Saga (by Sadler's Wells) wasn't much on the track and has also produced stakes-winning Danehill Dancer sprinter Pier Luigi. Second dam Midnight Mystery (Forty Niner x Storm Cat x Pleasant Colony) was a stakes winner at a mile and graded-placed at nine furlongs but won more races and money at sprint distances in a 25-race career.
Completing the quintet of previous grade one winners entered here is No Nay Fire, a three-time winner for owner Jonesstables7. His grade one win came at the one-mile distance he'll be racing again Saturday in last October's High Flyer Stakes, in which the son of No Nay Never just lasted to beat Redhill3's subsequent stakes winner Swerving. That triumph had followed a win in The Boones Farm (G2) at seven furlongs and a pair of on-the-board finishes in grade three stakes. He closed his 2-year-old book with a second-place performance in the Young Gentleman Stakes (G2), finishing behind only the talented Goodtobethedragon. Upon his 3-year-old debut, No Nay Fire set a brisk pace while amassing a greater than five length lead before succumbing in the stretch to finish fifth in the Irish 2000 Guineas Trial (G3). No Nay Fire descends from a quality female family as well. His dam, Lion Fire (by Lion Heart) won a grade two winning sprinter/miler who has produced two grade one winners. No Nay Fire's half-brother Oasis Fire, by Oasis Dream, was more of a pure miler than his mother, winning a grade one and a grade two at the distance. Granddam Fire Shield (Seattle Slew x Danzig x Mr. Prospector) was also a grade two winner and produced one each of grade one-, grade two-, and grade three-winning offspring. No Nay Fire is 9/1 and will leave from post 12 with jockey M. Scott in the irons.
That Irish 2000 Guineas Trial was won by Flagstriker, a son of U.S. Navy Flag and a tough competitor in this spot despite only a pair of grade three wins on his resume. Simsters7's Flagstriker has never finished worse than second in nine career races, including a sharp second in Star of Thunder's Duetoburst Stakes. His grade three wins both came this year and at eight furlongs beginning with the Jellyton Stakes in January and completed in the Irish Guineas prep race. In between, he won a listed stakes at a mile by an easy three lengths. So that's a three-race winning streak he enters with and a career tally of six wins from nine starts for a promising horse with tactical speed. Flagstriker hails from another stellar female family. His grade one winning dam, Hellstriker (by Pivotal), was a dual surface sprinter who could stretch out to route races in lesser company. She has also produced stakes winner Snowstriker (by Kitten's Joy). Second dam Simmerstrike (Smart Strike x Nijinsky II x Buckpasser) was a grade one-winning dirt track sprinter who, beginning with Hellstriker, produced three consecutive grade one winners, culminating with Middle Jewel Stakes (G1) winner Suicidal Dream (by Medaglia d'Oro). As for sire U.S. Navy Flag and the prospect of his get getting a mile, I have previously related my thoughts on him in a feature on Flagstriker following his Jellyton victory: http://btb.ehorseracing.com/?p=51194
Flag striker and Raglan Castle are the co-favorites at 5/1. Mav1763's Siyouni colt Raglan Castle has had a rather steady showing in four career stakes races, earning speed figures in three of them and winning two, including The Golden Rose (G2) in early March. The anomalous speed figure came in a fourth-place try in the Fainting Goat Nightmare Stakes (G2), in which he earned a 97. These four stakes races also represent his career in races of a mile or longer and include a third-place finish in The Doctor Is In Memorial (G3) in his most recent start. His dam is grade one winning millionaire Esterhazy Castle (by Giant's Causeway), a turf sprinter who has also produced grade one winners Cardiff Castle (by Street Cry) and Inveraray Castle (by Sea the Stars). Esterhazy Castle was the first foal from Clifden Castle (Sadler's Wells x Thatching x Halo), who was a grade two winning million dollar earner that also produced grade two winner Arundel Castle. Raglan Castle has the services of H. Knott and breaks just inside of Flagstriker in post position four.
Johnny's roan colt Chrismas Tree's brief three-race career has been a gift that keeps on giving, winning all of them. His approach to this classic is much like that of Justify heading into the Kentucky Derby only with the first two starts each about a fortnight earlier than that American Triple Crown winner's. A 4 1/4-length maiden win in late January was followed by an easy 2 1/2-length victory in an open allowance race before a first try in stakes ranks resulted in a 1/4-length victory in The Doctor Is In Memorial. Chrismas Tree's dam Spirit of Music (Invincible Spirit x Aptitude x Crimson Satan) was a grade three winning intermediate router on turf, with Christmas Tree being the only runner of note as yet from three foals. Drawn nicely in post seven, jockey I. Solar will get a leg up from Johnny ahead of Saturday's race.
Light gray colt Dark Ape is Ape's entrant in this classic race. The son of Dark Angel (scratchbred with Clodovil x Sunshine Forever) seemed to be following a path toward one of several possible 2000 Guineas attempts before going on an extended layoff following a ninth-place finish in Flagstriker's Jellyton Stakes in January. He'll now attempt this tough spot with over three months between starts. He has won four of nine career starts, with an additional three second-place finishes, including The Cyborg (G3) at six furlongs and the Grand Critter Stakes (G2) at a mile. He didn't appreciate the off-going in The Golden Shoe (G1) and ran evenly in The Saint Cloud at 10 furlongs. Dark Ape tends to run from just behind the pace and come with a sustained run. R. Waples gets the mount for the field's highest price, 26/1 on the morning line.
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Karthaini has developed nicely as a 3-year-old. Given19's son of Curlin has won two of three races in his sophomore season, including the Lyphinsky Turf Challenge, and he wasn't embarrassed when an even fifth in the Dracula Stakes (G3). As a juvenile, he won three races while allowed to set the early pace and finished fourth and seventh in a pair of listed stakes. He is the second stakes winner from three foals for his stakes winning dam Bondsmage (by Distorted Humor) and descends from the stakes winning he-mare Locke Lamora (Pivotal x Blushing Groom x Caerleon). The handicapper set his odds at 12/1. M. Perez is in the irons.
Mariana is taking a shot in the Guineas with More Than Hands, a stakes winning son of Exceed and Excel who finished ninth last out in Flagstriker's Irish 2000 Guineas Trial. While he has always been a closer, he has taken to dropping even farther back early on in recent races, spotting the field over 15 lengths in Ireland and 10 in his Miswaki Approval Turf Mile victory in February. As a 2-year-old, he sandwiched a pair of allowance wins around an eighth-place finish in The Rich Man, won by Erbiti. His dam, More Than His (by More Than Ready) was just getting good at this point of her 3-year-old season, winning a grade three dirt race in late May. More Than His is by His Seas (Seattle Slew x Wild Again x Silent Screen), a two-time grade three winner who won numerous listed stakes. The bay colt is 11/1 on the morning line with V. Elliot riding.
The lone New Zealand bred in the field is Urko's Tokyo Strike, who has won three of six career starts. The son of Santono Aladdin handled good going in his first start, cleared his initial allowance hurdle when next out, then made it three straight to start his career with a win in the URC Breeders Championships -- Juvy Turf Sprint. He enters this on a three race losing streak, though the first two losses were by just 3/4 of a length when fourth in the Lord Head Turf Special, and a head in the One Big Rush Turf Route -- his routing debut in which he earned a career best 97 speed figure. After finishing nearly 10 lengths in arrears in the 1 1/4-mile Jargon Stakes (G3), Tokyo Strike reduces the distance to a mile and increases the class level to grade one, classic category. Though he has yet to win past five furlongs, the One Big Rush result shows he's a capable miler, and the Dynaformer x Smart Strike bottom side of the pedigree back up that assessment. His dam, Flandria, was an intermediate router on the dirt. Tokyo Strike remains the lone stakes winner from a fairly modest female family. He is in the extreme stands side post 0f 14 in this straight mile while dismissed at odds of 22/1. Bela Lugosi is in the irons.
The field is rounded out by a pair from two of Lightng99's 319 stables. Kings Lake has one win from 12 starts but is graded-stakes placed, that placing coming via a half-length second-place finish in The Summertime (G3) when making his mile debut. He has also finished third in a listed stakes in February before completing his Guineas preparations with a ninth-place finish in the nine-furlong South African Classic (G2). The son of Kingsbarns was bred from the Majestic Warrior mare Majestic Lake, who has thrown two other stakes-placed horses. Traveling back several generations does lead to grade one winning turf sprinter Saltystickysweet. B. Wu rides the 21/1 longshot.
The other Lightng99 runner is Trieste Way (by Orfevre), both of his two career races came in races at a mile and up, including a win in December's Galt House Turf Juvenile. Disappointment followed when 12th of 13 in the Jellyton Stakes followed by a similar 11th place finish in the Czech 2000 Guineas. Trieste Way is the first stakes winner and second foal from stakes winner Rock Octagon (Acclamation x Old Trieste x Octagonal), who's success came in turf sprints. The speed figures of both Lightng99's runners would have to improve greatly to have an impact at the finish on Saturday.Trieste Way goes off at 25/1 from post two.
As for betting and to paraphrase LIttle Richard, Flagstriker is built for speed, he's got everythin' that Uncle John needs, oh baby. My fictional bankroll took a hit in last week's 1000 Guineas and is down a greater degree with pending bets on Friday's Humane distaff from Kentucky, sitting at $741.50 from a starting point of $1,000. So I'll take Flagstriker $20 across the board, and in $2 exactas with him over and under Karthani (3), Raglan Castle (4), Chrismas Tree (7), Star of Thunder (8), More Than Hands (10), and King Aidy Choice's (11). Also $1 trifectas with the "exacta six" in the first and second spots and Flagstriker in third. Cadet of Thrace (13) is a talented horse -- and he may burn me here -- but I'm going to take a stand against him in this spot. The mile distance may be too sharp for Creamsoda's runner and I don't see him surviving the dip in a postition to hit the board. So $114 in wagers, taking me down to $627.50 heading into the weekend.