Bluegrass Oaks Supersize Field - by spinround
The races every three year old owners want to win will be run this weekend. Friday is the filly’s day as they will run for the lillies in the Bluegrass Oaks and of course Saturday the colts will go for the roses in the Bluegrass Derby. There are several story lines in the Oaks, perhaps the biggest of which is that two top contenders, Apathetic Guru and Moland have chosen to take on the boys in the Bluegrass Derby. The second major story line is the dominance of trainer Given in this race with five entrants. The other dominant connection is that three daughters from sire Justify’s first crop have made the starting gate. Let’s get a closer look at the field.
#1 Octane Enforcer 12/1
A major player in this race will be the first in the gate, Octane Enforcer. She enters off four straight victories at a mile and a sixteenth or a mile and an eighth and each race has gotten better and better. Her first two wins were conditioned allowances and she closed fairly well in both starts. In the first race she was over seven lengths back at the top of the stretch but blew the field away. She was a bit closer in a five horse field in her next start and ‘only’ one by three quarters of a length but the win was never in doubt. She improved her speeds from a 90 in that first race to a 94 in the second. Then it was time to step up to stakes company and she entered a mile and an eighth listed stakes. It was the hardest fought victory in her recent runs, winning by a quarter length but again improved her speed to a 99. Her breakout race came in her most recent start, the Grade One California Oaks. In that start she was almost six lengths back at the top of the stretch but unleashed an amazing turn of foot to win by over a length with an eye popping 108 speed. Second in that race was Blame Guns whom she will face again here, and up the track was Widow’s Gambit. This is a scratchbred daughter of Into Mischief x Street Cry x Dynaformer.
#2 Worseatwhatidobest 23/1
One of two Quality Road fillies in this field is grade two winner Worseatwhatidobest. She’s the second foal out of a Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy mare and her two year old half brother is already graded placed. Worseatwhatidobest earned her grade two back in November when she took the Golden Red Stakes over Explainable who is to her inside in this spot. After a facile seven furlong HOT race to begin her 2020 campaign this filly faced off against Explainable again in the Grade One Vermont Is 4 Lovers but the finish order was reversed. Worseatwhatidobest came back to finish unplaced in another grade one in late March. Her career best speed is a 101 which she ran in that Vermont race. She’s a late, late closer and will be dependent on a clean trip in this twenty horse field.
#3 Widow’s Gambit 14/1
The only filly without a stakes win in this race is Widow’s Gambit. From eleven starts she’s won three times and finished second five. Three of those seconds have come in stakes races, including two starts back in the nine furlong Key Lime in March. In that race she sat just off the early pace and while she moved up to second at the top of the stretch she could not hold off the Decades Line who is also in this field. She did run a 100 speed in that race and her career best came in a listed one start previously when she ran a 103. She needed more points if she wanted to make the Bluegrass Oaks and trainer Given describes her next race as such “she completely bombed in the G1 Santa Anita Oaks [California Oaks], with a putrid 90 SF finishing 12th. I honestly have no clue what happened. All I can think of is that she liked her 9f runs so much she decided that 8.5f was too short for her now.” He feels that she has the ability to compete here but he notes that since the beginning of her career she has never gotten a rest and promises that if she does not run well in the Oaks she’ll get a good vacation. The daughter of Medaglia D’oro is out of the grade three winning War Front x Seattle Slew mare Widow’s War. Widow’s War is a mare bred and owned by player Lenny and he graciously leased her to Given last year. Widow’s War won her grade three going a mile and a sixteenth and she was multiple grade one placed at that distance. She flopped in her only start at a longer distance, a mile and an eighth. This is her second foal.
#4 Explosive Road 11/1
Given’s Quality Road filly was a strong second in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Fillies last year behind Bluegrass Derby entrant Apathetic Guru. Explosive Road ran through the winter with two fifth place finishes in graded stakes before breaking through in her most recent race. That was the Grade Two Fantasia Handicap at a mile and a sixteenth which she won wire to wire with a 107 speed. That race was run over a good dirt track and thus her big win may be suspect. Given agrees saying that the wet track “is the first of my concerns. Maybe she’s just that much better, with moisture in the surface. Another concern is that she didn’t perform great in her lone start at nine furlongs, and no one in her family, including her grade one winning dam Explosive Nine or her stakes winning half-sister Super Nine had success at nine furlongs. In fact, her dam’s lone nine furlong race came in the Bluegrass Oaks...It’s pretty cool to have a dam who ran in the Oaks produce a daughter who’s earned a spot.” Explosive Nine is a daughter of Bernardini x Forty Niner and the addition of Quality Road at the top may just give Explosive Road the extra boost of stamina needed to get nine furlongs. She is the fourth foal for her dam and second stakes winner. The previous three foals were all by sprint-type stallions.
#5 Arrokaza 24/1
One of the five runners from the powerful Given stables is Arrokaza. Like most Given runners she has a regal pedigree – she’s a daughter of Arrogate out of a graded placed, stakes winning mare by Giant’s Causeway x Deputy Minister mare. That isn’t just any mare but it is Hall of Famer Arawaza who was a dual grade one winner at a mile and a sixteenth. She has also produced End of Year Award winner Karukaza who won the Middle Jewel Stakes after being shut out of the Bluegrass Derby due to lack of points. Arawaza has produced one other grade one winner and numerous stakes winners. She’s a daughter of Hall of Famer Kamikaze who produced four graded winners. Arrokaza is her dam’s second foal and second stakes winner. As I said an amazing pedigree. But Arrokaza’s race record stands on it’s own as well. She was a grade two winner at two and grade one placed going one mile. Given says she “had me pretty pumped for the Breeders’ Bowl, but she ran a lackluster 8th in that race. I gave her three months off and brought her back in the Grade One Los Virgenes [actually the Los Vinigrette Stakes]… and was mildly surprised when she pulled out a game win against a nice field. The fact that she won that race off three months rest made me settle on the idea of giving her another three months off into the Oaks.” Arrokaza won that February race by a neck with a 98 speed after tracking the early leaders in fourth and pouncing down the stretch. The low speed doesn’t bother Given as “really no one was back in February”. The Los Vinegrette Stakes was at a mile and aside from the Breeders’ Bowl debacle Arrokaza has never run a longer distance. Still her odds make her a tempting bet if you believe she can improve again off another three month layoff.
#6 Imbil Ante 16/1
Imbil Ante is one of the hot horses entering this race. She’s won her last four starts including her stakes debut and then her graded debut in her most recent starts. Her last three races have all been routes and overall she is 4-3-0-1 in routes after losing her first try in a maiden back in September. She has some natural speed and has won several races wire to wire but she is also capable of sitting off the pace as she showed in her last race, the Grade Two Mellow Breeze Handicap at one mile where she sat in fifth early before snatching the lead at the top of the stretch and winning by over two lengths. Trainer Kyogle describes her ascension as such “This year she’s become quite an achiever, stepping up a class with each run.” Overall Kyogle tries to identify Classic contenders in December and plan their starts accordingly. But this filly with only a maiden win at the time was not in that group. He says “To say she’s been undertrained would be an understatement. She’s never had her settings adjusted from the default, and she’s never had a plan beyond the next race. If she runs well, she’ll be a great advertisement for “less is more” training. Nevertheless her versatility in her running style is a great advantage and she could be sitting in the garden spot early on, giving her a chance to snatch the lead and open up down the stretch and get first run on the deep closers. Imbil Ante is a daughter of Into Mischief out of an Oasis Dream x Smart Strike mare. This is the first foal for the mare who was an allowance winner who, in spite of her pedigree preferred dirt.
#7 Candy Ready 12/1
Candy Ready is one of two fillies by Candy Ride in this field and she is currently the more accomplished of the two. She’s based on a More Than Ready x Storm Cat hemare. That horse was an out and out sprinter but it seems that sire power of Candy Ride has gifted Candy Ready with a great deal of stamina. She didn’t try a route until December but she’s won three straight races since all at a mile or more and all very impressively. After that allowance win in December she made her stakes debut in February and closed from midpack to win going away with a 104 speed, very impressive for a February number. She returned in the Grade One Keep On Keeping On at a mile and an eighth and she won again with an even better 105 speed. That race came in mid-March so she’s had a good break to train up to this race. In her earlier races she sat a bit closer to the pace early on but in the Keep On Keeping On she showed a different dimension, closing from midpack to get the win. In that race she was in second place at the top of the stretch but over four lengths behind before reeling in the leader to win going away. The second and third place finishers in that race, Voicenthewildernes and Pleasures of War both line up against her again in this spot.
#8 Blame Guns 12/1
Blame Guns has only ever run in routes and she’s amassed a 7-4-2-0 record doing it. She boasts the longest race distance win of any horse in the field having taken a mile and five sixteenth listed wire to wire back on January first. She dropped down to a mile and three sixteenths in her next start while making her graded stakes debut in the Grade One We Need A Hero and after battling for the early lead she tired badly. That was her only off the board finish. The daughter of Gun Runner out of a stakes winning Blame x A.P. Indy mare is the first foal for her dam. She returned in March to win a mile and three sixteenths stakes again wire to wire with a 101 speed. The filly needed more stakes points to make the Oaks field so she returned two weeks later in the Grade One California Oaks where she again took the early lead before running into the buzzsaw Octane Enforcer who is among the favorites in this field. The big question about Blame Guns is will she get an easy early lead like she likes or is she the type of filly who likes to go a bit longer in distance where opening up a big lead is easier.
#9 Voicenthewildernes 11/1
The first of three Justify fillies in this race is Voicnthewildernes. She’s out of the grade one winning Pioneerof the Nile x Tapit mare Iwilldryupthenile and is the mare’s first foal. Iwilldryupthenile was a nine furlong specialist which bodes well for this filly. Obviously these three Justify fillies are from his first sim crop, making him a force to be reckoned with. Voicenthewildernes has the fewest starts of any filly in this race but she’s made the most of them. All of them came at a route and she began her career in November. She won her first three starts including a listed stakes in early February at a mile and a sixteenth with a 100 speed. That catapulted her to the Grade One Keep On Keeping On in mid-March where she lead from the get go before being reeled in by the more experienced Candy Ready. In that spot she improved her speed to a 103. She did finish ahead of grade one winner Pleasures of War, both of whom she will meet again in this spot. Interestingly all three are coming in off that race so they’ve had about six weeks off which is plenty of time to recover from such a tough race.
#10 Explainable 14/1
Entering off a long layoff is Explainable who last raced on February 15th in the Vermont is 4 Lovers at a mile and an eighth. She started far behind but closed stoutly to get the victory by almost three lengths with a 104 speed. She had previously run second in both of her other route starts including a ¼ length loss in the Grade Two Golden Red Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth. The winner that day was WorseatwhatIdobest who is also entered in the field today. This filly obviously loves the distance and should have some pace to run at although in a twenty horse field she could get shuffled much further back than she normally tends to prefer. She’s never been off the board in seven starts and that makes her a dangerous threat. Trainer 3away says “she has no excuses she should be good to go, guess we will see what happens on the day. Explainable is a scratchbred daughter of Justify x Mr. Prospector x Danehill. 3Away explains his thoughts on her breeding and name as such “I wanted a Justify foal and this is the first and only Justify share I’ve actually got so far so I wanted to make it a filly and the best I could possibly come up with.” “Explainable got her name from her breeding, her breeding is Explainable.”
#11 Decades Line 14/1
“I think Decades Line has a pretty reasonable chance in the Oaks” says trainer Dixiedotco. “She’s never done anything wrong, and her only loss was at a distance that was likely short of her best. Love that she has already won at nine furlongs and that she has speed, but doesn’t have to be on the lead. The post is good too… right in the middle”. As mentioned Decades Line has a record of 6-5-0-1 and her only loss came two starts back at a mile. Unlike Dixiedotco I think the loss had more to do with her making her stakes debut in a tough grade three. It is always difficult to make that jump from allowance winner to stakes winner, especially when you skip the listed stage. Although I do agree that this filly should run all day. She’s a daughter of Dubawi out of a stakes winning Giant’s Causeway x Dynaformer mare. She’s the second foal from the mare who did her best running on turf. She was equally good sprinting up to a mile but she did try a mile and five sixteenths once and ran a respectable second. Decades Line’s second dam is the Hall of Famer Final Exit, a winner of the Middle Jewel Stakes. She is one of four graded stakes winner’s for her Hall of Fame Dam Heaven’s Gate. Dixiedotco explains “Heaven’s Gate was named on a whim. But for all her foals, and all the foals associated with that line, I’ve tried to use ones that relate to the Heaven’s Gate cult. Her family has been so successful in the breeding shed that I keep having to breed them all, so I’m running out of names! This filly is named after the type of Nike shoes the cult members wore beffore they, ummm, ascended.”
#12 I’m Beyond Saving 18/1
The only filly who was available for a claiming tag in her career is I’m Beyond Saving. She began her career in a $5,000 maiden claimer which she won handily and was picked up by new connections Eurobiz. Her first two races came on turf but Eurobiz switched his filly to the dirt in November and she is undefeated in four starts on the surface, including her last three which came in routes. She made her stakes debut at the end of February where she sat in third just off the early leaders before pouncing down the stretch to win by almost three lengths with a 96 speed. She followed the same pattern in her next start a month later in the Grade Two Keep It Hot but this time she had a battle down the stretch with Erratic Empire who was second early on and really gutted it out towards the wire. I’m Beyond Saving won the mile and an eighth contest by a determined quarter length with a 102 speed. She’s a daughter of Lope de Vega (likely why she was started on the turf) out of a Distorted Humor x Bernardini mare. She is the first foal for her dam and the only graded winner in her extended family.
#13 American Goer 20/1
American Goer is a scratchbred daughter of American Pharoah x A.P. Indy x Easy Goer. It’s interesting to note how the two Triple Crown winners have such a disparity of runners in this race, especially considering that American Goer is one of the longer shots in the field. Also interesting is that neither has an entrant in the Bluegrass Derby. But I digress. American Goer has made her last five starts in grade one company including a win in the one mile Frickazee Stakes last October. That race was followed up with a third place finish in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Fillies. She was given a three month layoff after the Breeders’ Bowl but things have come off the rails in her two starts this year. As mentioned both races were grade ones and she finished seventh in both starts. She’s never run over a 100 speed which is a distinct disadvantage against this field.
#14 Tempting Piranhas 14/1
Tempting Piranhas is another Given horse and like his #5 Arrokaza she is descended from the Hall of Fame mare Kamikaze. Her dam is a grade one winning Medaglia D’oro x Deputy Minister half sister to another Hall of Famer Arawaza, granddam of Arrokaza. Named Medakaza she did her best running on dirt in routes with her grade one victory coming at a mile and a quarter (she also finished a strong third against males at that distance in the Grade One Jockey Guild Gold Cup). Tempting Piranhas is the third foal for Medakaza and third stakes winner but first graded winner. The first two stakes winners also won their stakes at a mile and a quarter. Given jokes “I guess the real question is how this filly avoided being named something like every other horse in this family...The answer I guess is that by Pioneerof The Nile, I wanted to come up with a Piranha-themed name.” He is convinced that due to her dam’s stamina the distance of this race will be absolutely no problem. Tempting Piranha won her first stakes in October of last season but has run on and off again since. She was off the board in her graded debut but ran a decent second in her 2020 debut at a mile and three sixteenths. She returned from that effort to win a grade two at a mile and an eighth with a 98 speed. Interestingly in her previous good races she was a midpack runner but on that day she nearly went wire to wire. Out of a concern for having enough points for the Oaks Given ran her back at the end of March in another grade two but she showed no speed that day and finished a dull seventh. If she follows form she could be sitting on her best race yet.
#15 Pleasures of War 19/1
Pleasures of War exits one of the toughest preps for this race. She finished a strong third behind Candy Ready and Voicenthewildernes in the Grade One Keep On Keeping On. She ran a 101 speed in that start after closing from midpack. She earned a grade one win last September but was off the board in her next two starts, prompting a three month layoff. In another race she might have been an easy winner. Her speed that day was a career best which suggests that the layoff has done her quite a bit of good and she could be sitting on a new best in this spot. She’s had six weeks between that race and this one so I don’t think a bounce is likely here. She’s a daughter of War Front out of a Kingmambo x Seattle Slew mare. She is the twelfth foal for her dam and first graded winner although that mare has produced four other stakes winners.
#16 Skitty Scat 13/1
A winner of three of six starts routing with three seconds, Skitty Scat has been on an upward trajectory since last August. Starting in November she reeled off three straight wins with speeds increasing from 90 to 95 to 103. That 103 was recorded in her stakes debut, the Grade Three SilverBulletBeer at a mile and a sixteenth. She returned six weeks later to run in the Grade One lool Oaks at the same distance. Skitty Scat likes the early lead and usually is able to hang onto it but in the lool she faced off against fellow entrant here Denovo Blanco and battled down the stretch to lose by a heartbreaking quarter length. Skitty Scat is going to face a lot of speed in this spot although breaking so far outside she’ll be able to gauge whether to jump out early or try to conserve some of it and sit just off some of the other fillies. She’s never been a mile and an eighth before which will be another question mark for her. She’s a scratchbred daughter of Take Charge Indy x Scat Daddy x Arch which doesn’t give a good hint as to how well she’ll handle that extra distance.
#17 Smoking Red 17/1
Candy Ride is a controversial sire in the game as he is often described as not being rated as well as he deserves and also because (unlike in real life) his best foals are better as older horses. Interestingly he has two runners in the Bluegrass Oaks including Smoking Red. Smoking Red is out of a graded placed, stakes winning daughter of Malibu Moon x Deputy Minister. She is the second foal for her dam and first stakes winner. Her dam, Blood Sacrifice was grade one placed at nine furlongs and this will be Smoking Red’s first try at the distance. She’s been off since the end of February by design. After running a strong fourth in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Fillies trainer Given gave her some time off and when she returned Given describes her return as “she smoked a mile stakes in January with a 99 SF. Her next race was the Grade Two 8.5f Louisiana Oaks, and she ran a hard charging third. Since she’s run well on rest, I decided to take a risk that she would have the points for the Oaks and enter her straightaway, and that worked out.” Smoking Red is looking for her first graded win in this spot although she was second in a grade one last fall. She tends to sit midpack early before making a move but needs to improve to take a placing here. With the extra time off it is certainly possible that she has done that and it is likely that the added distance will help her. “My concerns with her are whether or not she’s currently in the same class as some of the really nice fillies in this race. However, I won’t be surprised if she runs the best of my Oaks contenders” says Given.
#18 Denovo Blanco 15/1
The filly with the most wins in the field is Denovo Blanco, a scratchbred daughter of Cape Blanco x Miswaki x Roberto. She’s seven for nine with one second. Interestingly her only off the board finish came in her one race at a mile and an eighth, an allowance back in January. But she is much improved since that, taking an allowance in February by four and a quarter lengths setting her up for a run in the Grade One lool Oaks at a mile and a sixteenth. She closed from eleventh in that start to win by one quarter length with a 104 speed. That race was back on March 21st so she has had a solid break before this run. She defeated grade three winner Skitty Scat in that start whom she’ll meet again in this spot. Trainer Denovo is super pumped about his filly’s chances. He hasn’t had a running in a prestigious race in eighteen years of playing so it is a very big deal for him. He says of her chances “I do have a very good feeling about her chances this Friday...We’ll see.” Denovo Blanco has additional good karma as she was a gift horse from Metallinut. Gift horses always seem to be lucky in the game.
#19 Fully Throttled 14/1
A filly who has tried males four times is Fully Throttled. She broke her maiden in a residency restricted maiden against the males and her next best finish came two starts back when she ran second in the Grade Three Rebel Yell at a mile and a sixteenth. She ran a 103 speed in that spot where she was last early on and eleventh at the top of the stretch before closing to within three lengths of the winner Order the Code Red who is 10/1 in the Bluegrass Derby. That race came over a good dirt surface which may have assisted Fully Throttled Run. She returned in the Grade One Wooden Indian and never fired finishing thirteenth. Overall Fully Throttled only has three wins from twelve starts but she did win a listed back in November going a mile and a sixteenths. She’s a daughter of Tapit out of the grade one winning Awesome Again x Seattle Slew mare Terminal Velocity. This is her seventh foal and she’s already produced a grade one winner by Sea the Stars. Terminal Velocity ran in the 2011 Bluegrass Oaks, finishing a respectable fourth and she did her best running between a mile and a sixteenth and a mile and an eighth so the pedigree power is certainly there. Can Fully Throttled do her dam one better?
#20 Ruler of Justice 17/1
The last runner going into the gate on Friday will be Ruler of Justice. She’s also the last of the three Justify fillies (and the second grade one winner of the bunch). She’s the first foal from the grade two winning Smart Strike x Nureyev mare Ruler of Galaxies. Ruler of Galaxies was a late bloomer, not making her debut until September of her three year old season and she did her best running up to a mile which is the distance she won her grade two at. Ruler of Justice has only one win routing and that came last September in the Grade One Darley. After two fifth place finishes in grade ones she was given time off over the winter and returned in March in the Grade One Key Lime. That race may have been tougher than trainer Lenny anticipated as she was beaten by fellow entrants Decades Line and Widow’s Gambit while finishing third. She closed from midpack but was still beaten over four lengths at the wire. She ran a career best 99 speed which is a touch under the rest of the field, most of whom have hit the triple digit mark. Still it was a good belt tightener and I can see her moving forward off that race. The question is whether a move forward is enough to take a win or placing in this big, tough crowd.
Good luck to all!